It's December and every analyst and economist and financial man dreads the predictions of what is in store for your for 2012. The stars and astrologists and gurus etc are in a quandary because they need to re-invent new strategies as we move into a super brand new age! Watch this space!!
Some may love this opportunity to look into their crystal ball and cast their eye forward to the year ahead. However, most financial whizz kids do not want to look silly when unpredictable world events and occurrences take us off in a completely unexpected direction. Expect the unexpected.
So, best way to predict the future was to invent it. Predictions in calm markets are pretty useless, let alone in the kind of markets that we are seeing at the moment. Nevertheless, it is now time for all economists to prostrate ourselves and have people throw rotten fruit and the occasional curse word at them , toy toy in the crowds as we proceed to predict what the next 12 months might have in store for us.
So we base this on a huge assumption - the Eurozone does not fall apart. If it does then all bets are off and you better get used to growing your own veggies. Here goes..
Chinese Investment in SA quadruples
China is the biggest investor in Africa. All across Africa, new tracks are being laid, highways built,ports deepened, commercial contracts signed—all on an unprecedented scale, and led by China, whose appetite for commodities seems insatiable. Do China’s grand designs promise the transformation,at last, of a star-crossed continent? Or merely its exploitation? SA backs down in all aspects for the big buck and watch them own all the land soon. Look at Centurion in Gauteng almost completely owned by MNT developments. Guess who?
The UK economy will not enter a double dip recession
The UK economy, as is the same in most developed nations, is struggling along at the moment with little optimism in the short term. We expect that the two toughest quarters for the economy will be Q4 this year and Q1 2012 as consumer spending slows, business investment remains weak and government spending cuts continue. It’s year end, so maybe forgive me for coming across as overly negative, but everyone must realise that the next couple of years regardless of whether you live in Kensington, Kuruman, Kuwait City or Kenton-onSea are going to be tough. You don’t get over 10 years of excess without a significant hangover.
EU leaders will sort themselves out in 2012
A great point of debate. The danger of implosion is high and being an optimist (sometimes blindingly so) but I think that the great and the good of the European political system will come to their senses in 2012 and a lasting resolution to the continent’s debt problems or the start thereof. So lets dream forward - This will come from a new “fiscal compact” – a centralised government and the eventual transition to a United States of Europe. They will not do this as a result of anything other than another brush with the apocalypse. I’m not sure what the trigger will be (3 bad business confidence numbers from the Germans, France’s credit rating being cut, social unrest in Italy or the fall of another government) but something large will happen that will eventually shake the political class from this malaise. and the Greeks will still avoid taxes.
House and Homes around the World
Less people will be able to afford houses anywhere and the rich will still buy obscure investment properties. A new term the FAMILY HOME will start, we already see signs of it. This is where the family from Grandparents to Grandkids will start sharing commune based homes, double stories, one land one family (Large) approach and all will contribute towards it.
Banks and Mortgages
New home loan products will hit the market being structured finance packages that include all aspects of financing, short, medium and long term structures and used as savings vehicles. A one account for all your, your children, larger family needs - just to restrict the banks risk. Normal lending will resume from 2013 only, forget about 2012. Repossessions will increase at least by 10 times.
The Green Effect
If you ever thought COP17 was going to do anything else but give people a great paid for holiday, stimulate the KZN economy and make all the scientist feel important forget it. They could never and never will stop what they have started - because they do not really care. A sad day for all but the good news is that people like you and I will make huge efforts because we want to. There is a superhero in each of us.
And for fun, just for you…
The ANC will be rocked by a strategic partnership split.
The Duke and Duchess of Cornwall will announce a royal pregnancy
Petrol Prices will rise to unprecedented heights
Sales of scooters will exceed expectations by far
A new leader emerges in SA.
I would like to wish you all the best for the festive season, and a Happy New Year and c'mon 2012!!