What do the experts say for 2012 for the Property Market?

So what do you think is happening in the property market in SA - is it paradise to come?

This is what the FNB property barometer looks like.  Download this now.

Recently, there has been some media discussion about whether the current time is the time to buy property, on the back of some assertions that residential property market “equilibrium” has been reached. It is surely safe to say that the residential property market has become more of a “buyers” market since early-2008, with prices having declined by around -17% in real terms since February of that year (“real prices” refer to average house prices adjusted for consumer price inflation).

But it is challenging to ascertain when a market has reached equilibrium, the price level where demand matches supply, especially as equilibrium levels fluctuate over time. Reaching equilibrium would imply that demand has finally caught up with supply after about 4 years in which the market could be deemed to have been oversupplied, a state which caused the downward real price correction in the market. Reaching equilibrium would also imply no further real price decline to come, unless of course further economic deterioration in the near term caused the market equilibrium price level to decline further, because price levels required to reach market equilibrium, or (otherwise put) market balance, do change over time as economic conditions change.

We believe that indications emanating from the latest results of the FNB Estate Agent Survey suggest  that the residential market still has some way to go before it reaches that “holy grail” where oversupplies disappear and the market can finally be said to be realistically priced and, yes, in equilibrium.

The first and foremost factor influencing our view is the fact that, according to the agents surveyed, the estimated average time that a home remains on the market before being sold rose for the 2nd successive quarter in the 4th quarter of 2011, from a previous 17 weeks and 2 days to 17 weeks and 6 days.

This would suggest that the imbalance between demand and supply has deteriorated further recently. The recent average time on the market remains far above the 2 month level, and even well-above 3 months, levels which we would deem necessary to reflect a market with a “healthy balance between supply and demand”. There has been a broad trend of increase (deterioration) in the average time on the market since early-2010, after something of an improvement in 2009 on the back of major interest rate cuts.

The second indicator of pricing realism, namely the estimated percentage of sellers being required to drop their asking price to make the sale, has also shown the resumption of a broadly rising trend from late-2010 through 2011, and currently hovers around 90% of total sellers. Whilst one would always expect a significant percentage of sellers to “open the bidding” on the high side, the current percentage would appear to be extremely high when looking back to the lower percentage of sellers dropping their asking prices in years prior to the 2008 recession. In addition, 2011 showed further increase in this percentage, which is not what one would expect to see in a market getting nearer to equilibrium and price realism. While an additional survey question, regarding the average estimated percentage drop in price by sellers being required to do so, has only been asked for 2 years, we have seen a mild increase in the average estimated price drop from -11% early in 2010 to -13% by the end of 2011.

Therefore, the sample of estate agents surveyed during the 4th quarter of 2011 would not appear to believe that the residential property is yet realistically price given the level of demand, or otherwise put, they appear to imply that the market is not yet in equilibrium or “balance between demand and supply”. Admittedly, the appropriate average time on the market is debatable, but we believe that above 17 weeks is inappropriately long. This, we believe, requires either further real house price decline, or alternatively residential demand needs to strengthen considerably to catch up with supply.

And at this stage, the agents aren’t pointing to a positive move in residential demand. A key question posed to estate agents in the survey is with regard to their perception of residential demand strength, done on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the strongest possible level. After a mild strengthening in the demand rating in the 3rd quarter of 2011 to 5.87, the 4th quarter (normally a seasonally stronger quarter) saw a mild decline to 5.66. In year-on-year terms this represents -2.2% decline on the 4^th quarter of 2010. Agents have not perceived demand to have made any meaningful progress in terms of strengthening, following a significant surge from mid-2009 to mid-2010. This shouldn’t be surprising, given that since late-2009, there has been very little further interest rate reduction, and little support from a very mediocre economy.

In terms of expectations of demand in the near term, the 4th quarter agent survey returned a weak response, with a very significant drop in the percentage of agents expecting demand to increase, from 44% in the previous quarter to 17% in the 4th quarter. This was the lowest percentage of respondents expecting strengthening since the 2nd quarter of 2005.

When asking agents for the factors influencing their near term expectations, seasonal factors play the most important role in this deterioration by far, because at the time of the 4th quarter survey in November, they were looking at 2 months of quiet time ahead as the holiday season approached. However, there are certain other negative factors that have are significant, including the perceived “strict credit environment,  “economic stress/general pessimism”, and still-unrealistic pricing by many sellers.

Also significant, is that only a few agents (7%) still see interest rate levels as still being a positive. The last rate cuts took place in 2010, and the stimulus from rate cuts has worn off.

In order to eliminate the strong influence of seasonal factors, we aggregate the results for near term expectations on a 4-quarter moving average basis, and the result is what we call the FNB Home Buying Confidence Indicator. The Indicator is on a scale of -1 to +1, with a -1 number assigned to a “weakening expectation” by an agent, a rating of zero to an “unchanged” expectation, and a +1 rating to a “strengthening” expectation. Here we see the 4th quarter Home Buying Confidence Indicator declining mildly on the previous quarter’s level, from 0.25 to 0.19.

The agents surveyed, therefore, appear to have become more pessimistic in their near term expectations, seasonal factors aside.

The Estate Agent Survey thus appears to support our opinion that further real house price (house prices adjusted for consumer price inflation) decline is required in the near term in order to shift the residential property market towards a balance between demand and supply or, otherwise put, equilibrium.

Therefore, at this stage, the residential property sector would be sensitive to any unwanted surprises in the form of an interest rate hike at this week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank. Fortunately, at this stage such an event seems unlikely, with the expectation that CPI inflation is nearing its peak, after which it is expected to decline back into the target range of 3%-6% without requiring help from interest rates at this stage

2012 What is in store for you! The True story!

It's December and every analyst and economist and financial man dreads the predictions of what is in store for your for 2012.  The stars and astrologists and gurus etc are in a quandary because they need to re-invent new strategies as we move into a super brand new age!  Watch this space!!

Some may love this opportunity to look into their crystal ball and cast their eye forward to the year ahead. However, most financial whizz kids do not want to look silly when unpredictable world events and occurrences take us off in a completely unexpected direction.  Expect the unexpected.

So,  best way to predict the future was to invent it. Predictions in calm markets are pretty useless, let alone in the kind of markets that we are seeing at the moment. Nevertheless, it is now time for all economists to prostrate ourselves and have people throw rotten fruit and the occasional curse word at them , toy toy in the crowds as we proceed to predict what the next 12 months might have in store for us.

So we base this on a huge assumption - the Eurozone does not fall apart. If it does then all bets are off and you better get used to growing your own veggies. Here goes..

Chinese Investment in SA quadruples

China is the biggest investor in Africa. All across Africa, new tracks are being laid, highways built,ports deepened, commercial contracts signed—all on an unprecedented scale, and led by China, whose appetite for commodities seems insatiable. Do China’s grand designs promise the transformation,at last, of a star-crossed continent? Or merely its exploitation?  SA backs down in all aspects for the big buck and watch them own all the land soon.  Look at Centurion in Gauteng almost completely owned by MNT developments.  Guess who?

The UK economy will not enter a double dip recession

The UK economy, as is the same in most developed nations, is struggling along at the moment with little optimism in the short term. We expect that the two toughest quarters for the economy will be Q4 this year and Q1 2012 as consumer spending slows, business investment remains weak and government spending cuts continue.   It’s year end, so maybe forgive me for coming across as overly negative, but everyone must realise that the next couple of years regardless of whether you live in Kensington, Kuruman, Kuwait City or Kenton-onSea are going to be tough. You don’t get over 10 years of excess without a significant hangover.

EU leaders will sort themselves out in 2012

A great point of debate.  The danger of implosion is high  and being an optimist (sometimes blindingly so) but I think that the great and the good of the European political system will come to their senses in 2012 and a lasting resolution to the continent’s debt problems or the start thereof. So lets dream forward - This will come from a new “fiscal compact” – a centralised government and the eventual transition to a United States of Europe. They will not do this as a result of anything other than another brush with the apocalypse. I’m not sure what the trigger will be (3 bad business confidence numbers from the Germans, France’s credit rating being cut, social unrest in Italy or the fall of another government) but something large will happen that will eventually shake the political class from this malaise. and the Greeks will still avoid taxes.

House and Homes around the World

Less people will be able to afford houses anywhere and the rich will still buy obscure investment properties.  A new term the FAMILY HOME will start, we already see signs of it.  This is where the family from Grandparents to Grandkids will start sharing commune based homes, double stories, one land one family (Large) approach and all will contribute towards it.

Banks and Mortgages

New home loan products will hit the market being structured finance packages that include all aspects of financing, short, medium and long term structures and used as savings vehicles.  A one account for all your, your children, larger family needs - just to restrict the banks risk.  Normal lending will resume from 2013 only, forget about 2012.  Repossessions will increase at least by 10 times.

The Green Effect

If you ever thought COP17 was going to do anything else but give people a great paid for holiday, stimulate the KZN economy and make all the scientist feel important forget it.  They could never and never will stop what they have started - because they do not really care. A sad day for all but the good news is that people like you and I will make huge efforts because we want to.  There is a superhero in each of us.

And for fun, just for you…

The ANC will be rocked by a strategic partnership split.

The Duke and Duchess of Cornwall will announce a royal pregnancy

Petrol Prices will rise to unprecedented heights

Sales of scooters will exceed expectations by far

A new leader emerges in SA.

I would like to wish you all the best for the festive season, and a Happy New Year and c'mon 2012!!

Dubai repossessed auctions

The Dubai Land Department has sold eight foreclosed properties at auction in the first bulk sale of repossessed homes in the emirate.

Location, location, location:

The sale may clear the way for lenders to offload millions of dirhams in repossessed property.

The homes sold between Dh740,000 (US$201,450) and Dh6 million, well above the minimum prices.

"It was good news to see the [foreclosure] process start to work like other jurisdictions," said Jody Glenn Waugh, a partner with Al Tamimi, a law firm.

Hundreds of properties are in the foreclosure process in Dubai but they have been slow to come up for auction, where sales are controlled by the Land Department. In May the department auctioned a repossessed villa in The Springs for Dh1.22m, the first and only sale of a foreclosed home under provisions of a mortgage law approved in 2008.

The sale came more than a year after the British bank Barclays won a court order to repossess the property. "Judgements have been flowing for some time now, but there have been delays getting the property to auction," Mr Waugh said.

Dubai's 2008 Mortgage Law No 14, was designed to speed up the foreclosure process, giving lenders a chance to recoup their losses on defaulted property.

Instead of going through civil court, under the new law lenders could execute a foreclosure through a simple hearing before a judge, after giving the client proper notification.

After the judge's order is issued, the property would be auctioned by the Land Department.

But the system has been slow to develop, industry executives say. In addition to the process for obtaining judgements, there were issues establishing values for property.

Some officials were concerned about flooding the market with low-priced homes at a time when prices are already 50 per cent below peak levels in some places, industry experts say.

The Land Department had previously tried to auction a handful of other properties, but they did not sell.
"Initially reserve prices were just too high and now they are far more realistic and as a result they are attracting buyers," said Richard Paul, the head of valuations for Cluttons.

International mortgages were raised for some of the properties.

The auction may prompt lenders to start more foreclosure proceedings. Banks and mortgage companies have been focusing more on renegotiating deals and using foreclosure as a last resort, industry analysts say.
"Ultimately [the auction] provides banks with more confidence that if the buyer defaults, they can go through the process," Mr Paul said.



Long-term, the auction process may also prod mortgage providers to provide more home loans in Dubai, where lenders are still wary.

"As the [foreclosure] system becomes more streamlined it will give lenders greater comfort to be more aggressive in lending," said Jean-Luc Desbois, the managing director of Home Matters Mortgage Consultants.

The Land Department staged three auctions last week with 19 properties for sale, including homes in non-freehold areas. The bulk of the eight repossessed properties sold were villas in the Al Thnnyah and Wadi Al Safa areas, plus two apartments in Dubai Marina, according to a sale brochure.
All the properties sold for more than the reserve price, with bidding brisk, said people who attended the auction. A villa in the Al Thnnyah neighbourhood listed at Dh3.5m sold for Dh5.6m.

"It was well attended," Mr Desbois said. "The place was full." But auctions are still rare in the UAE, he noted."Investors and buyers are becoming more aware of the ability to purchase property under auction," Mr Desbois said.

"It is a very new concept for the UAE."

The Worlds 10 best Property Investments and Homeloans

Everyone wants to know the top 10 places to buy your proeprty in and with all of these there is a one stop shop to obtain free money transfers and international mortgages.  They are easy and cheap to produce and you rarely have to reveal your methodology.

Property Journalist Graham Norwood has put together an interesting list of the "safest" global property destinations for UK newspaper, the Daily Telegraph.   The criteria used is extensibly the “lowest risk” locations but lifestyle arguments are used to justify many of the selections.

I've added my thoughts.  I'd be interested to hear your views.

1. Canada

Picked for its relatively strong mortgage market, solid legal system and stunning ski resorts.  Difficult to argue with Norwood’s selection especially as Canada has managed to avoid the worst excesses of the neighbouring US.

2. Hong Kong

Chosen due to limited supply and plenty of demand from the Chinese mainland.  

Hong Kong has experienced some of the steepest rises in property prices with values almost doubling since 2005. However, “experts” insist the boom is sustainable.  

There are now over 30,000 real estate agents working on the island, more than three times the number in the whole of the UK.  The experts predicting sustability are agents with a vested interest.  I’m not convinced.

3. Switzerland

Favourable tax treatment, a stable market and great skiing make Switzerland a great bet according to Norwood.

 

Buying a property is also a huge bet on the Swiss Franc which is hugely overvalued according to most measures.

4. Mauritius

Outstanding natural beauty, a strong political situation and a new scheme to encourage foreign investment make Mauritius a good tip.

5. Gibraltar

Spain without the problems is the basic message.

A strong economy in financial services, telecoms and internet gaming combined with very low taxes make Gibraltar an excellent bet.

6. South Africa

Low volatility in the property market, outstanding beauty and cheap prices are the key arguments in favour of South Africa.

7. Barbados 

Chosen for its international prestige, accessibility and a strong legal system.

8 St Lucia

Barbados with lower prices.

9. Kenya

Chosen for its “consistent growth”.  Not sure it meets the strict “low risk” criteria though.

10 The Cayman Islands

A reputation for international finance, limited supply and fantastic lifestyle make the Caymen Islands a solid choice.

Comment

It is very difficult to produce a list like this on a global scale.  All markets are local.  Buying property in established prime locations is the key to preserving capital and minimizing risk.  The key is finding clients with a lot of liquid capital and long time horizons.

The Good News Please The Good News

Well today Dec 1, 2011 is world AIDS day and to mark this occasion it is great to know that the clinics are having great success with reducing HIV positive status for young babies born from HIV positive mothers.  How wonderful.

On this same day, we see stock markets rise on the back of European banks raising their funds and backup funding for bailouts, albeit they may need to raise this from the IMF.  But that's OK.  In fact if you want to see who owes what to whom in the Eurozone click here.

On the SA home loan and mortgage front, we have seen a very slow rise in lending, but there is some very good news.  ABSA, Standard Bank, FNB and Nedbank have all changed their lending criteria for the better.  Well done guys, so if you are risk averse and ready for the plunge get your homeloan today from these guys and make sure you sue a great mortgage originator who will not only get you the best deal but also discounts on attorney fees etc.

So great news in the money transfer arena.  Globalfundi a SA based transfer company has announced the best rates and no administration fees for moving money out of SA and they assist in all the Reserve Bank and exchange control requirements.  Save a whack when you send or receive money to and from SA.  That's great news.

In this last month of the year you may need to raise funds quickly so look at getting some cash in the pocket and then pay it off with your bonus asap.  personal loans are very popular and the bank lend fairly easily as long as your credit report and record stays clean.

For those wanting to get to the top of google use a great SEO company today, there are many.  we see savings made of up to $120,000 a year from the case studies. 

The best news of all - its Christmas time, give something to those in need and we wish everyone we know and do not know a great recharge for 2012.